RMBI Newsletter = 風險薈訊, Issue 11 (October 2016)

Abstract

October 2016 Issue 11 風險薈訊 The newsletter aims to provide a channel to share up-to-date and interesting current Risk Management and Business Intelligence issues. It motivates our students to interact early with the industrial professionals, learn about the latest development and share new insights with the community, as well as enrich their understanding of the importance of Risk Management and Business Intelligence and how it can be put into practice. 「風險薈萃」旨在提供渠道，分享有關風險管理或商業智能的最新資訊。 學生可透過製作過程，與相關業界的群體互動，從而了解業界最新發展及 分享學成果，並進一步認識風險管理及商業智能學的重要性，可說是知識 理論與實踐並重。 About RMBI Newsletter A Concerted Effort of our RMBI Students 關於「風險薈萃」 學生協力合作的作品 RISK MANAGEMENT

UP-TO-DATE ISSUES

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE

IN THIS ISSUE 今期主要內容 Stress Testing in the United States and Europe 美國和歐盟金融壓力測試 1 Risk on Brexit 2 Background Europe: Scenarios Methodology Passing Score Result USA: Scenarios Passing Score Result P. 1-2 P. 3 P.4 P.4 P.4 P.6 P.6 P.7

Risk on Brexit 英國脫歐 危機

Background Impact on Britain: Econoic Impact Financial Impact Impact on EU: Econoimci Impact Financial Impact Suggestion in Post-Brexit P. 8-9 P.10 P.11 P.12 P.13 P.13-14 P. 1 Background

Stress testing is a risk management tool used to simulate extreme but plausible events and measure how these events impact the whole economy. It is a nonstatistical tool used to measure potential loss under a set of “what -if” scenarios. Each scenario involves defining a set of risk factors and the amounts by which these factors could move (in a stressed market) under a specified scenario. The worst-case loss from these scenarios is reported as “Stress Loss” to the responsible parties. As part of the introduction of Pillar 2 of Basel II from 2008 onwards, banks were first required to conduct capital stress tests as part of their Individual Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP).

壓力測試是一種風險管理工具，用於模擬極 端但有可能發生的事件，以及衡量這些事件 會如何影響整體經濟。這是一種非統計工具 ，用於衡量各種假設情景可能造成的損失。 每個情景都會定義一系列的風險因素和金額 ，而這些風險因素和金額可在特定情景下 （在受壓市場）發生改變。在這些情景中， 最壞情況下的損失稱為為責任方的「壓力損 失」。2008年新巴塞爾協定的第二支柱首先 要求銀行接受資本壓力測試，以作為銀行資 本充足評估程序（ICAAP）的一部分。 背景 Stress Testing in the United States and Europe 1 P. 2 Banks need to review their largest loss experienced periodically by senior management. The importance of stress tests in supervision has increased dra- datically since the recession and associated finan- cial crisis of 2007-2009. Stress testing uses Scenario Analysis to shift key input variables by large amounts and measure their impacts. Event-driven scenario is to generate scenarios from events that would likely cause movements in relevant risk factors, while portfolio -driven scenario first identifies the risk vulnerability, and then translate it into adverse risk factor movements. In stress testing, VaR is commonly used. VaR is a probabilistic method of measuring the potential loss over a given period and for a given distribution of historical returns. VaR can also be interpreted as the worst possible loss under normal conditions over a specified period. It is an estimate of the ma- ximum loss that can occur at a given confidence le- vel. For example, if it is mentioned that ‘for a given month, the VaR is $10 million at 90% level of confi- dence,’ it means ‘under normal conditions, there is a 10% chance that on any given month, the loss will be more than $10 million.’ 銀行需要定期由高級管理人員審查曾經歷過的 重大損失。自2007至2009年發生經濟衰退和金 融海嘯以來，壓力測試對於監管的重要性大大 提升。 壓力測試利用情景分析去大幅度改變主要的變 量，從而衡量其影響。由事件推動的情景是指 由有可能會導致相關風險因素變化的事件去引 發情景；而由投資組合推動的情景則會首先識 別其風險，然後把它詮釋為不利因素的改變。 在壓力測試中，常常會用到風險價值模型 （VaR）這種工具。風險價值模型用於在一定 概率水平（置信度）下，衡量某一金融資產或 證券組合價值在未來特定時期內的潛在損失。 它亦可解釋為在正常條件下，於特定時期內可 能出現的最大損失。它是於置信水平內的估計 最大損失。例如，「假設某一個月，90%的置 信水平為1,000萬」，這意味著「在正常情況下 ，預計在任何一個月中，將會有10%的機會令 損失多於1,000萬。」 壓力測試有助管理層應對主要風險問題，例如 於特定壓力情景下，對其利潤和損失的影響、 Background 背景 P. 3 Stress testing helps management to address key risk issues, for example, the P&L impact of a spe- cific stress scenario, the worst-case scenario and associated loss, the level of concentration risk (e- xposure to an industry), the risk appetite of the fi- rm(i.e., the level of loss the firm is willing to take in stressed markets). Credit risk, market risk, operational risk, sovereign risk, securitization and cost of funding are considered as the risk types in stress testing in both the US and EU. 資金集中風險的程度，以及企業的風險偏好（即公 司願意在惡劣的市場環境中，承擔的最大損失）。 信用風險、市場風險、操作風險、主權風險，證券 化和融資成本均被美國和歐盟視為壓力測試的風險 種類。 Background Europe 歐洲的壓力測試由歐洲銀行業管理局 （EBA）執行。 EBA負責確保金融體 系在歐盟的運作、完整性和穩定性。 EBA採用的其中一項重要工具是在歐 盟範圍內進行壓力測試。該壓力測試可 評估歐盟金融機構在經濟變差時的適應 能力。它提供了所採用的方法及情景的 資料。歐洲銀行業管理局（EBA）還 與歐洲系統風險理事會（ESRB）、歐 洲央行（ECB）及歐盟委員會（EC） 進行合作。 Stress Testing vs USA Stress Testing Stress testing in Europe is conducted by the European Banking Authority (EBA). EBA ensures the functioning, system in the EU. One of the import- nad tools used by EBA is EU-wide stress trsting. This stress test exercise assesses the resilience of the financial institutions in the EU toa downturn in the econmy. It provides information about the methodologies and senarios used.The EBA also cooperates with the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), European Central Bank (ECB) and European Commission (EC). Europe 歐洲 Scenarios 情景 在2016年歐盟範圍內的壓力測試中， 所採用的情景為期三年，即2015年至 2018年。情景可以分為兩個部分： 一個是宏觀經濟的基準情景，另一個則是不利 情景。宏觀經濟基準情景是基於歐洲委員會對 宏觀經濟增長的預測；不利情景則是指創造一 個假設性全球經濟衰退。

Methodology 方法 歐盟範圍內的壓力測試主要評估風險對銀行的 適應力和償付能力的影響。銀行需要就一系列 風險展開壓力測試，並預測這些情景下的淨利 息收入。銀行需要重點列出其他風險類型不涵 蓋的損益和資本項目。 2016年歐盟壓力測試還 要求就進行風險和外匯貸款提供明確的處理方 式。 EBA與銀行定期進行的討論有助銀行預備 此測試工作。

EBA主要評估銀行的三個部分，即：信用風險 、市場風險和操作風險。這三個部分的範圍通 常包括損益（P&L）和風險暴露量（REA）。

The scenarios used in the test for example, the 2016 EU-wide stress test cover a period of three years from 2015 to 2018. The scenarios can be divided into two parts, baseline scenario is a macroeconomic baseline scenario and the other is an adverse scenario. The macroeconomic baseline scenario is based on the macroeconomic growth forecast which is conducted by the European Commission. The adverse scenario is to create a hypothetical worldwide recession.

EUROPE vs USA 1 USA Scenarios Passing Score Results STRESS TESTING EUROPE Scenarios Methodology Passing Score Result

Methodology 方法 The EU-wide stress test focuses on the assessment of the impact of risk on the resilience and solvency of banks. Banks are required to stress test a set of risks. In addition, they are requested to project their net interest income under those scenarios. The banks need to emphasize their profit and loss and capital items which are not covered by other risk types. The 2016 EU-wide stress test includes an explicit treatment of conduct risk and FX lending to its scope. The EBA has regular discussions with banks which helps them prepare for the exercise. EBA mainly assesses three parts of banks which are: credit risk, market risk and operational risk. The sco- pe of these three parts usually covers Profit and Loss (P&L) and Risk Exposure Amount (REA).

Passing Score 及格分數 這裡以2014年歐盟壓力測試為例。在 基準情景和不利情景下，普通股權一 級資本比率（CET1）是確定銀行是 否能夠通過壓力測試的關鍵。要通過 測試，銀行的CET1需要在不利情景 中達5.5%，以及在基準情景中達8%。

Take the results of the 2014 EU-wide stress test as an example. Under the baseline scenario and the adverse scenario, the Common Equity Tier 1 '73tr`whether a bank can pass the stress test. To pass the test, the banks need to have CET1 rates of 5.5% in the adverse scenario and 8% in the baseline scenario.

Result 結果 在2014年歐盟壓力測試中，共有123 間銀行接受了測試。歐盟銀行的 CET1在不利宏觀經濟情景期間平均 下降了260個基點，其中 24間銀行甚至低於5.5％ CET1的門檻。結果顯示，信用風險損失是CET1 比率降低的主要原因。

In the 2014 EU-wide stress test, 123 banks were tested. The EU banks’ CET1 dropped by 260 basis points on average in the stress test under the adverse macroeconomic scenario. The 24 banks even fell below the threshold (5.5% CET1), showing that credit risk losses are the main reason for the decrease in CET1 ratio.

1 EUROPE Scenarios Methodology Passing Score Result STRESS TESTING USA Scenarios Passing Score Results

Europe Stress Testing vs USA Stress Testing USA 美國 In the US, The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act requires the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to conduct supervisory Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) with bank holding companies (BHCs) with more than $50 billion in consolidated assets. Moreover, it requires banks and BHCs with more than $10 billion in consolidated assets to carry out a company- run, Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test (DFAST) each year to assess the capital adequacy and capital planning processes of bank holding companies. In the DFAST, BHCs are required to assess and report their capital position under a minimum of three macroeconomic scenarios (baseline, adverse and severely adverse) in March of each year. The scenarios are introduced by the regulators and the banks make predictions over a nine-quarter horizon based on their own forecasting models. Under CCAR, BHCs with more than $50 billion in consolidated assets are required need to meet additional requirements. Apart from conducting their own stress tests, they need to submit annual capital plans which must fulfill U.S. Basel III capital framework to the regulators in January and July respectively to carry out the supervisory tests as assessment.

根據美國的《多德-弗蘭克華爾街改革和消 費者保護法 》(DFAST)，美國聯邦儲備委 員需要向擁有超過500億美元綜合資產的銀 行持股公司(BHCs) 進行監管性質的綜合資 本分析及審查(CCAR) 。與此同時，該法規 亦要求擁有超過100億美元綜合資產的銀行 持股公司及銀行每年進行多德-弗蘭克法案 之壓力測試(DFAST) ，以此評估該機構的 資本充足性及其資本規劃流程。 在《多德-弗蘭克華爾街改革和消費者保護 法 》下，銀行持股公司必須依據基準、不 利及嚴重不利三個宏觀經濟環境，於每年 三月對其資本狀況進行評估及報告。而上 述經濟環境的數據及細節則由監管機構制 定，銀行可以根據內部訂製的預測模型進 行時跨九季的預算。 另外，在綜合資本分析及審查下，銀行持 股公司若擁有超過500億美元綜合資產便需 要遵循更多的規管。大型銀行除了對其資 產進行壓力測試外，還要分別在一 月和七月向監管機構提交符合美國 巴塞爾協定III資本框架的年度投資 計劃，以進行額外的監管性壓力測

Scenarios 情景 「基準」情景乃基於經濟預測者對 經濟增長的平均估計。 2015年所採 用的情景包括：每年GDP增長不到 3%；失業率小幅下降，並在2017年 第四季度達到5.25％；以及年平均 消費物價通脹率僅超過2％。 所採用的「不利」情景包括：

The “baseline” scenarios are based on the average estimations of average economic expansion by economic forecasters. In 2015, the scenarios used included GDP growth of just under 3% per year, a modestly decreasing unemployment rate, Reaching 5.25% in the fourth quater of 2017, and average CPI inflat- ion of just over 2% per year. The “adverse” scenarios used included a mild recession and a rapid rise in both short and long-term interest rates. The “severely adverse” scenarios used included a deep recession with a 10% unemployment rate, a decrease of 25% in house prices, a drop of 60% in the st- ock market and a significate increase in market volatility.

及格分數

根據綜合資本分析及審查，大型銀行需要維持的 最低法定資本要求包括： 一級資本比率為5%，普 通股權一級資本比率為4.5%，一級風險資本比率 為6%，總風險資本比率為8%，以及一級槓桿比率 為4%。

經濟衰退溫和；以及利率在短期和長期均迅速上升。所採用的 「嚴重不利」情景包括：失業率高達10％；樓價下跌25％；股 市下跌60％；以及市場波動性顯著增加等。 Passing score Under CCAR, large banks need to maintain the following minimum regulatory capital requirements, tier 1 common ratio: 5%, common equity tier 1 ratio: 4.5%, tier 1 risk-based capital ratio: 6%, total risk-based capital ratio: 8%, and tier 1 leverage ratio: 4%.

Minimum regulatory capital requirements: Tier 1 common ratio 5% Common equity tier 1 ratio 4.5% Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio 6% Total risk-based capital ratio 8% Tier 1 leverage ratio 4%.

及格分數 根據綜合資本分析及審查，大型銀行需要維持的 最低法定資本要求包括： 一級資本比率為5%，普 通股權一級資本比率為4.5%，一級風險資本比率 為6%，總風險資本比率為8%，以及一級槓桿比率 為4%。

Passing score Under CCAR, large banks need to maintain the following minimum regulatory capital requirements, tier 1 common ratio: 5%, common equity tier 1 ratio: 4.5%, tier 1 risk-based capital ratio: 6%, total risk-based capital ratio: 8%, and tier 1 leverage ratio: 4%.

結果 在2015年，佔國內銀行資產80%的31間銀行持股 公司（BHC）參與了監管性質的銀行壓力測試。 美聯儲通過了28間銀行持股公司的資本計劃，並 有條件通過美國銀行公司的資本計劃，另一方面 則基於風險衡量、匯集流程、損失和收入預測等 因素拒納德意志銀行美國分行的資本計劃，以及 基於管治、內部控制、風險識別不足等因素拒納 桑坦德集團的資本計劃 。

銀行的股息和股票回購計劃可影響其資本計劃是 否能夠通過。例如，花旗集團為通過壓力測試， 在過去幾年均一直支付每股一便士的紅利。在通 過2015年的壓力測試之後，花旗集團和美國銀行 均決定提高其股息和回購股票 。

“The dividend and stock repurchase plan of banks can affect whether their capital plan can be passed. ”

Results In 2015, 31 bank holding companies (BHC) which together accounted for 80% of the domestic banking assets participated in the supervisory bank stress test. The Federal Reserve cleared the capital plans of 28 BHCs, conditionally cleared the capital plan of Bank of America Corporation, and rejected the capital plans of Deutsche Bank Trust Corporation because of weaknesses in risk measurement, aggregation process, approach to loss and revenue projection, etc., and Sa- ntander Holdings USA due to deficiencies in gov- ernance, internal control, risk identification, etc.

The dividend and stock repurchase plan of banks can affect whether their capital plan can be passed. For instance, Citi kept paying dividends of a penny per share in the past few years in order to pass the test. Both Citi and Bank of America decided to raise their dividends and repurchased stocks after they have passed the 2015 stress test.

“The dividend and stock repurchase plan of banks can affect whether their capital plan can be passed. ”

Text 撰文

CHU Pui Shan, Emily 朱佩珊 HUI Ka Hin, Kelvin 許嘉軒 LEE Ngo Tin, Leonardo 李遨天 Students (Year 4) of Risk Management & Business Intelligence Program LEUNG Ka Shin, Carlson 梁家善 CHAN Sin Man, Carmen 陳倩雯

2Risk on Brexit 2016年6月23日﹐英國舉行了脫歐公投。超於投票的選民超過3,000萬，投票率達71.8%。脫歐陣營 取得了過半數選民的支持﹐以52%對48%的比例勝出公投。但早在半年前，留歐陣營仍被視為佔有 優勢。由於結果出乎市埸所料﹐市埸一片恐慌﹐金融市埸發生震盪。是次公投意義重大。公投後， 雖然英國仍需進行繁複的法律程序才能正式脫歐﹐但這已經對歐盟的整體性造成一定的損害。這篇 文章著眼分析脫歐對英國以及歐盟所造成的經濟影響。 23 June 2016 marked the exit of the first member state from the European Union. The UK voted to leave the Uoion by a majority of 52%. The refeerendum turnout was 71.8% and voter turnout exceeded 30 million. About a half year ago, the remain camp was still expected to prevail in the referendum; however, the shocking result caused panic in the financial markets on the voting day. The result of this landmark referendum will seriously affect the ptospects of the UK and the European Union. In this article, the focus will be on its econmic and financial impacts.

脫歐的背景 1957年﹐比利時﹑法國﹑意大利﹑盧森堡﹑荷蘭 及西德簽署了羅馬條約﹐從而建立了歐洲經濟共 同體(EEC)﹐而當時英國並沒有參與。其後英國 分別於1963及1967年申請加入EEC﹐但都被法國 總統戴高樂拒絕，理由是英國的經濟活動在許多 方面都與其他歐洲國家不協調。

其後﹐英國又於法國總統戴高樂下台後第三次 提交申請﹐並於1973年1月1日正式加入歐洲 經濟共同體。

2016年公投並不是英國首次有機會決定是否 留歐。在1975年的公投中，除了設得蘭群島 及外赫布里底群島外，所有其他行政縣郡都投 票支持留歐，支持留歐的選民佔整體67%，令 英國得以繼續成為歐盟成員。不過，有關英國 應否留歐的討論並未因1975年的公投結果而 停止。 2012年﹐時任英國首相卡梅倫否決了脫歐公 投的建議﹐但他沒有完全否定將來就英國應否 留歐舉行公投的可能性。2016年2月22日﹐卡 梅倫宣佈於2016年6月23日舉行公投。他原本 希望藉此增加政府的支持度﹐並沒想到卻為他 將來下台留下了伏線。

Background of Brexit The UK was not a signatory to the Treaty of Rome which created the European Economic Community (EEC), in 1957. The country applied to join the organisation in 1963 and again in 1967; however, both applications were rejected by Charles de Gaulle, the then President of France. The reason was many aspects of Britain’s economy, from work- ing practices to agriculture, were incompatible with those of Europe and that Britain harboured a deeprooted hostility to any Pan-European project. The UK’s third application for membership was success- ful after Charles de Gaulle had left office. On 1 Janu- ary 1973 the United Kingdom joined the EEC, or ' Co- mmon Market'. The 2016 referendum was not the fi- rst time the British have been given the chance to decide whether their country should remain in the EEC. In 1975, every administractive country had a ma- jority voting for the UK to stay in the European Community (Common Market), except Shetland Islands and the Outer Hebrides in Scotland. In line with the overall result, with 67% voted in favour of staying in the EEC, the United Kingdom remained as a member of EEC. However, discussions on whether the UK should remain in the EEc did notend with the 1975 referendum.

Background 2 Impact on EU Economic Impact Financial Impact RISK ON BREXIT Impact on Britain Economic Impact Financial Impact Suggestion in Post-Brexit

In 2012, Prime Minister David Cameron had rejected a proposal for a referen- dum on the UK’s EU membership, but he did not preclude the possibility of a future referendum on this subject, which first opened the door for the future Brexit. In a speech to the House of Commons on 22 February 2016, Cameron anounced a referendum would be held on 23 June 2016 and set out the legal framework for withdrawal from the European Union in the event the majori- ty voted to leave, citing Articla 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. He spoke of hs inten- tion to trigger Article 50 immedidiately following a leave vote and a two-year period to negotiate the arrangements for exit from the EU.

Impact on Britain after Brexit

Economic Impact 對經濟的影響 The immediate impact of Brexit was felt in the forex market. The value of the pound slid to a 30-year low. If the pound remains at these levels, it will seriosly damage the profitability of UK firms. This is because such a large depreciation of the currency will dirctly increase the operation costs of firms and decrease the purchasing power of UK consumers. Firms will need to raise prices to offset increases in costs, on the other hand, consumers will need to cut their expenditure due to the weaker pound. This viscous cycle will hurt the UK’s domestic economy. Besides the impact brought about by the weaker pound, Britain has also lost its top AAA credit rating, which implies the cost of govern- ment borrowing will be higher. Facing limitations in raising captial, it will be harder for the goverment to adopt an expensive fisal po- licy to boost the economy. In the long term, foreign direct investment and immigration will im- pact the prospects of the UK. After Brexit, UK will become less attra- ctive as a gateway to Europe, and as a location for corporate headquarters and investment from Europe. This is because Britain will lose the tax advantages it enjoyed as a member state, seriously reducing its attractiveness to investors. With fewer companies choosing to set up offices in UK, the job market and hu- man capital will be adversely affected. The tightening of immigration will also damage the competitiveness of the UK, particularly that of London. Freeflow of human capital helps a country to attract talent and technology, boosting productivity and competitiveness. Tightening of immigration policy can better protect the welfare benefits of its nationals, but this comes at the expense of the longterm development of the country. 脫歐公投後，外匯市埸首先受到 衝擊﹐當中英鎊一度跌至30年低 位。倘若英鎊繼續在低位徘徊﹐ 將會對英國企業的盈利能力造成 巨大影響。英鎊大幅度貶值會導 致企業營運成本上升﹐另一方面 亦減低本土消費者的購買力。企 業需要提高貨品售價以應對成本 的上升﹐在物價高漲的情況下﹐ 消費者唯有減少支出。這個惡性 循環只會損害英國的本土經濟。 除了英鎊大幅貶值對物價造成壓 力外﹐英國亦失去了其最高信貸 評級﹐這意味著英國政府籌集資 金的成本將會上升。面對有限的 集資方法﹐英國政府將更難以透 過實施擴張性的財政政策來剌激 經濟。 除了英鎊大幅貶值對物價造成壓 力外﹐英國亦失去了其最高信貸 評級﹐這意味著英國政府籌集資 金的成本將會上升。面對有限的 集資方法﹐英國政府將更難以透 過實施擴張性的財政政策來剌激 經濟。 從長遠的角度看﹐外來直接投資 以及移民政策將會影響英國的前 從長遠的角度看﹐外來直接投資 以及移民政策將會影響英國的前 Economic Impact 對經濟的影響 景。英國過往作為不少跨國集團 的總部及投資聚集地﹐在脫歐公 投後﹐將失去其作為歐盟成員所 享有的優惠待遇﹐大大減低投資 吸引力。不少公司均有意前往其 他歐盟國家成立公司﹐這將影響 英國的勞動市埸及人力資源。 收緊移民政策亦會破壞英國的競 爭力﹐尤其以倫敦為甚。人口自 由流動有助匯聚國家人才和技術 ﹐從而提升生產力及競爭力。雖 然收緊政策有助更好地保障英國 市民的權益﹐但卻忽略了這對英 國長遠發展的影響。

Financial Impact 對金融業的影響 倫敦是國際金融中心﹐其地位在短時間內難以 被其他歐洲城市所取替。但它肯定會流失很多 機會﹐因為脫歐後倫敦要向歐洲其他國家提供 服務將變得困難。而且，隨著跨國公司將總部 遷離英國以及英國收緊移民政策﹐英國的競爭 力將被大大削弱。倫敦一直以來都非常倚賴金 融服務業﹐因此脫歐所造成的影響不容忽視。 London is a renowned international financial centre, This remains its strong competitive edge making it difficult for other European cities to take over its po- sition even after Brexit, but the city will certainly lose opportunities as it will become harder to provide services to EU countries. With many multinational companies set to move their headquarters and the tighting of immigration policy of UK, the attrac- tiveness of the UK, Longdon inparticular, will be gre- atly reduced. London has long relied on receipts fro- m the financial services industry, it would be difficu- lt for the city to ignore the impact of Brexit. P. 11

Economic Impact 對經濟的影響 Background Impact on EU Economic Impact Financial Impact RISK ON BREXIT Impact on Britain Economic Impact Financial Impact Suggestion in Post-Brexit 2 Impact on EU after Brexit 脫歐後對歐盟的影響 英國脫歐後﹐歐盟國家與英國的貿易協議需 要重新制定。各國為爭取對自身最有利的條 款﹐很難期望彼此能在短時間內達成共識。 雙方將無可避免會減少貿易活動，貿易成本 亦會上升﹐這對雙方都沒有好處。雖然歐盟 是英國的重要貿易伙伴﹐但英國對歐盟其他 國家來說亦非常重要。從 Eurostat 數據可見 ﹐歐盟有一成的出口以英國為目的地﹐而英 國則有一半出口以歐盟為目的地。這種不平 衡的貿易關係令英國成為歐盟其他國家的重 要出口國。英國的貿易赤字每年遞增﹐2013 年該數字已達660億歐元﹐相當於歐盟27國 國民生產總值的0.6%。而這些貿易赤字主要 集中在個別歐盟國家。以貨物總值計算﹐德 國單單在2013年便出口了價值780億歐元的 貨品至英國。若以對英國的出口順差佔本國 的國民生產總值的百分比分析﹐英國的重要 性更顯而易見。對荷蘭﹑捷克﹑比利時﹑波 蘭﹑拉脫維亞﹑斯洛伐克﹑匈牙利及立陶宛 而言，這個比例都超過1%。脫歐後﹐這些國 家都要另求出路。 After Brexit, the trade agreements between the UK and the rest of Europe will have to be renegotiated. This will take time as both sides will negotiate for terms that are most favourable to themselves. Inevitably, trade activities will fall and trade costs between the UK and the rest of Europe will go up, putting both sides in a losing position. Although the EU is a more important trade partner for the UK than the UK is for the EU, the UK market is very important to many EU countries. From the statistics provided by Eurostat, the UK accounts for just one sixth of the EU’s economy. One-tenth of EU exports are to the UK, whereas half of UK exports are destined for the EU. So the imbalanced trade relationship makes UK an important export market for the rest of the EU. The UJ's trade defit with the rest of the EU has grown substantially in recent years and was €66 billion in 2013, equivalent to 0.6% of the GDP of the EU27 countries. Trade surpluses with the UK are concentrated in a small number of countries measured in value terms, especially Germany, which exported €78 billion to the UK in 2013. However, as a percent of GDP the trade surplus with the UK is important to many countries. It exceeds 1% of the GDPs of the Netherlands, Czech Republic, Belgium, Poland, Slovakia, Latvia, Hungary and Lithuania. After Brexit, these countries have to find other export ma- rkets. P.12

Financial Impact 對金融業的影響 脫歐將會影響歐洲的金融活動。當歐洲失去倫敦 這個金融中心後﹐各種商業活動的成本將會上升 。倫敦與歐洲各地均有緊密的合作﹐因此不少大 型的商業銀行都需要重新部署﹐從而令其發展受 到影響。英國向歐盟15國提供了8800億美元的信 貨﹐當中包括個人、企業、政府以及銀行間的短 期貸款。 倫敦在許多金融產品方面皆擁有絕對的優勢。脫 歐可能會令衍生產品等金融活動因此撤離歐洲。 巴黎﹑阿姆斯特丹、法蘭克福﹑都柏林等地方都 有可能得益於脫歐。但它們需要時間去複製倫敦 的成功之處：倫敦長久以來作為國際金融中心， 積累了大量的人力資源，亦擁有健全的法律制度 及完善的金融基建。當歐洲其他地方未能追上倫 敦時，其競爭力亦將會受影響。

Brexit will impact on Europe's financial activities. When London ceases to be Europe's financial ce- ntre, the cost of doing business will rise. As the UK is highly intrgrated into the European financial system, a significant number of large European banks will have an impact on their development. Total loans extended by the UK to the EU15 totalled $880 billion, borrowers include

London has a dominat position in many financial products. There is a risk that some business, particularly derivatives, may leave Europe altogether. The most likely beneficiaries in the EU are Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Dublin. However, it takes times to replicate the favourable conditions that have made London an international financial centre, including a large pool of skilled workers, a sound legal system and solid financial market infrastricture. Before catching up to London, the compet- itiveness in Europe will be adversely affected.

脫歐後建議 英國應盡快與歐盟協商，制定新的 貿易協議。這並非一朝一夕便能完 成的事情，需要雙方求同存異，互 相作出妥協。歐盟已經與美國、加 拿大等國家訂立了新的投資協定。如果英國遲 遲不作出行動，對其本土經濟將有損無益。 英國央行應增加其政策透明度，穩定混亂的金 融市場，以加強市場信心，消除不確定性。 對歐盟而言，脫歐所造成的衝擊更大。成員國 之間的爭議和矛盾將日漸加劇，在歐洲移民等 許多議題上都難以達成共識。長久下去，這將 會影響歐盟的穩定性，唯一的解決方法是加快 改革的步伐，從根本的層面化解紛爭，畢竟歐 盟難以承受再有其他成員國的退出。

Background Impact on EU Economic Impact Financial Impact RISK ON BREXIT Impact on Britain Economic Impact Financial Impact Suggestion in Post-Brexit

Suggestions on Post-Brexit The UK should renegotiate EU trade agreements without delay as negotia- tions will be neither swift nor simple It will require considerable diplomatic effort from both sides. On the other hand, the EU has already concluded new investment agreements with the US and Canada. If the UK does not act promptly, it will only be detrimental on its economy. The Bank of England should be more transparent in their monetary policy; it should also stabilise chaotic financial markets, infuse confidence and remove un- certainty. Transparency can help eliminate unvertain- ty, stabilize the financial markets and help them reg- ain confidence.

For the EU, the fallout from Brexit is much more se- vere. Disputes between member states have soared and tensions have flared, not only over refugees, but also a range of issues. Without reform, the growing hostility between members will destabilize the EU. The only solution is to increase the pace of reform and fundamentally resolve these disputes. This is be- cause the departure of another of its member st tes could be fatal.

Text Lam Hiu Kwong, Patrick 林曉洸 Student (Year 4) of Risk Management & Business Intelligence Program 風險管理及商業智能學課程四年級學生

Advisors Prof. Lei Chen 陳雷博士 Prof. Lancelet Kames 在林壽教授 Prof. Xianhua Peng 彭獻華教授

REFERENCES - Global Counsel. (June 2015). BREXIT: the impact on the UK and the EU. SOME PHOTOS - freegreatpicture.com - pharon111.com